MISSION BRIEF
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Overnight, U.S. forces in the Indian Ocean boarded the stateless tanker M/T Majestic X — the third sanctioned vessel interdicted in four days — while the Pentagon released footage of troops climbing the hull in open water, somewhere between India and the Arabian Sea. The Defense Department posted one line: they would pursue Iranian-linked vessels “wherever they operate.” Six thousand miles west, the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut.
MarineTraffic data showed two cargo vessels and zero tankers crossing the strait on Thursday. Two. Before the war started on February 28, the daily average was 129 tankers. LSEG tracking confirmed that since Monday, a total of nine tankers have transited the lane — a volume the strait used to handle before breakfast.
The IRGC now controls the exit. The U.S. Navy controls the entry. Both sides are boarding ships, seizing cargo, and firing on hulls that don’t comply. On Wednesday, Iranian gunboats hit the Greek-owned Epaminondas with RPGs and gunfire — despite having granted it clearance to pass — then dragged it and the Panamanian-flagged MSC Francesca to the Iranian coast. A third vessel, the Euphoria, took fire off Oman and limped into Fujairah.
CENTCOM confirmed Thursday that its blockade of Iranian ports has turned back 31 vessels since April 13. Most were oil tankers. Iran has launched 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships since the strait closed. Neither side will let the other’s traffic through. The result is the first dual naval blockade of a major energy chokepoint in modern history.
Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. has “total control” of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament speaker wrote on X that reopening the strait is impossible while the blockade stands. The New York Times reported that Iran can no longer locate all the naval mines it planted in the waterway. Trump ordered the Navy to “shoot and kill” any boat caught laying more.
The AI trade has a power problem
It’s not chips
Everyone thinks AI is about chips.
They're wrong.
The bottleneck moved.
Power.
Right now, fully built data centers are sitting idle.
No electricity.
And the numbers are getting worse…
Goldman Sachs says 40% of AI facilities will be constrained by power.
That's not a slowdown.
That's a breaking point.
And when it hits the SpaceX IPO…
The market won't react slowly - it will snap.
Into the companies that can actually turn these systems on.
One is already sitting in that position.
Still mispriced.
Not for long.
THE OPERATION
Double blockade
Before the war, 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products flowed through the Strait of Hormuz every day. The IEA’s April Oil Market Report, published April 14, put the current loss at over 13 million barrels per day — more than the 1973 and 1979 oil crises combined. Global supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in March alone, to 97 million — the largest single-month disruption in the history of the oil market.
The workaround routes are maxed out. Saudi Arabia has been loading crude from its Red Sea terminals on the west coast. Fujairah, on the UAE’s eastern shore outside the strait, ramped exports. The Iraq-to-Turkey pipeline through Ceyhan has been running full. Combined, these alternatives pushed bypass capacity from 3.9 million barrels per day in February to 7.2 million in early April. That still leaves a gap of more than 13 million barrels per day that has no route to market.
Gulf producers have cut total production by more than 14 million barrels per day because they have nowhere to put it.
The IEA’s 32 member nations released 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles in March. Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, told CNBC on Thursday that a second release would only buy time. He called the current situation “the biggest energy security threat in history” and said the math is simple: the strait must reopen, or the reserves run dry.
Meanwhile, Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported that at least 26 ships from Iran’s ghost fleet circumvented the U.S. blockade in its first week. The tankers scattered — flagged in Liberia, registered in Panama, insured out of nowhere — carrying Iranian crude to buyers in Asia who needed it too much to ask questions about the paperwork.
Brent crude closed Thursday above $107 a barrel, up 40% from pre-war levels. WTI hit $97.71. The IEA’s April report noted that North Sea Dated crude traded as high as $130 a barrel earlier in the crisis, $60 above pre-conflict levels, as refiners scrambled to replace locked-in Middle Eastern cargoes. Refining margins for middle distillates — diesel and jet fuel — hit all-time highs.
Europe gets 75% of its jet fuel from Middle Eastern refineries. That supply is now at zero. The IEA warned some European nations face jet fuel shortages within six weeks. Lufthansa cut 20,000 flights. United raised fares 20%.
RULES OF ENGAGEMENT
Your exposure
The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is $4.02 as of April 23, according to AAA — down three cents from last week but still 35% above pre-war prices. In California it’s $5.83. In Hawaii, $5.65. The average American household is paying roughly $38 more per month at the pump than it was eight weeks ago, according to the Center for American Progress.
That was before Brent broke $107 on Thursday. Retail gas prices lag crude by one to two weeks. The next move at the pump is up, not down — and Goldman Sachs projected that even if the strait reopened tomorrow, Brent would settle at $80 a barrel by year-end, still 10% above where it was on February 27. The strait is not reopening tomorrow. The Pentagon said clearing the mines alone could take six months.
On January 8, gas cost $2.81 a gallon. Eight weeks of war later, it costs $4.02 — a 43% increase for the year so far, with Brent still climbing, bypass routes at capacity, and emergency reserves draining at a pace that gives the IEA months, not years, of runway. Fertilizer shipments through the strait have stopped too, which means the cost of corn, wheat, and bread follows oil up the escalator. And some guy on television called it a temporary supply adjustment.
